Thursday, October 22, 2015

NOAA Global anomaly up 0.01°C in September

The NOAA monthly report is here. That is a small change - GISS was steady, as was TempLS Grid, which tends to track with NOAA. But August was very warm.

NOAA say they are continuing to transition to GHCN V3.3. That is of interest, because as rader Olof noted, GHCN V4 is now out in beta version. It's is early beta, though, and I think it will be a long while before NOAA is using it. I've been taking a look, and should report soon.

In other news, the NCEP/NCAR index continues very hot for October. I commented here on a remarkable peak early in the month. It eased off from that, but only down to the level of earlier peaks, and is now rising again. With 19 days now gone, and the temperature last above the month-to-date average of 0.609°C, it will be by far the hottest month anomaly in the record. That index has anomaly base 1994-2013; on the 1951-80 base of GISS, the level would be 1.217°C.


  1. Nick, hi,

    Am I understanding correctly here... that the GISTEMP October anomaly is likely to be in the neighbourhood of 120 (1.2C) if things stay as they are? That might just light a big fire under the contrarians, so to speak. The highest previous monthly anomaly was at 97 for January, 2007. So we're talking multiple sigmas here.

    1. I doubt that it will follow the reanalysis all the way. GISS has been less mobile recently, and was 0.15C behind the matching NCEP/NCAR value in September. But I think quite possibly over 1C, maybe significantly.

  2. So we are about there. I think GISS LOTI is going to be big... .90C plus.